下列各项中哪些有可能是支持关税或出口补贴的有效论据，哪些不足，为什么？ a．“美国的石油进口量越大，那么在

下列各项中哪些有可能是支持关税或出口补贴的有效论据，哪些不足，为什么？

a．“美国的石油进口量越大，那么在下一次世界性的石油短缺中石油价格就越高。”

b．“美国非时令水果如冬葡萄等供应的80%都来自智利。随着智利非时令水果出口量的不断增加，这些昔日的奢侈品的价格已大幅下降。”

c．“美国农产品出口不仅对农民意味着更高的收入，而且对任何一个把产品及服务出售给美国农业部门的人来说都意味着更高的收入。”

d．“半导体就好比是技术的‘原油’；如果我们自己不生产芯片，那么对每一个使用微电子技术的产业来说，关键的信息流动就会被破坏”。

e．“木材的实际价格下降了40%，以致成千上万的木材工人被迫去寻找其他工作”。

Which of the following are potentially valid arguments for tariffs or export subsidies，and which are not(explain your answers)？

a．“The more oil the United States imports，the higher the price of oil will go in the next world shortage．”

b．“The growing exports of off-season fruit from Chile．which now accounts for 80 percent of the U.S. supply of such produce as winter grapes，are contributing to sharply falling prices of these former luxury goods．”

c．“U.S. farm exports don't just mean higher incomes for farmers--they mean higher income for everyone who sells goods and services to the U.S. farm sector．”

d．“Semiconductors are the crude oil to technology；if we don't produce our own chips，the flow of information that is crucial to every industry that uses microelectronics will be impaired”

e．“The real price of timber has fallen 40 percent，and thousands of timber workers have been forced to look for other jobs．”